TechnoCloud

Meaningful and detailed social networking statistics can prove elusive, certainly on the open net, so all the better to see a good summary of data from Facebook, MySpace and the lower profile Reunion on Jeremiah’s Web Strategy blog.

Perhaps the most interesting in the post is the Forrester prediction that Facebook will overtake MySpace in terms of registered users by end 2008. Feels about right until you look at the stats on display.

The stats claim 60m active users at present versus 110m for MySpace (but don’t state registered user numbers) - would it really double in a year given its high penetration in the key US market (85% of universities)? And yet, there’s the stat about active users doubling every six months, so it’s possible.

And what about MySpace’s likely growth, particularly when you consider one of the other statistics? Facebook’s average of 250k registrations a day versus MySpace’s 300k. Some catching up to do surely?

Brings to mind the old adage about the three types of lie: “lies, damn lies and (social networking) statistics”, as Jeremiah alludes to in a follow up post.

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You have to wonder when you find sites like Fatdoor.  It describes itself as a:

fun and easy way to get to know your neighbors, create local communities and keep tabs on the neighborhood.

I can’t help but think there are more effective ways that involve less technology.  Maybe next we’ll see a social networking site that provides a fun and easy way of establishing a relationship with your children.

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Another oh-so-handy reference list from the recently list obsessed Mashable, profiling the increasing ‘How to’ video niche.

While YouTube and its many clones try to be all things to all people, these How To sites are proving that there is a market for niche video communities. The best of these sites are more focused, easier to navigate and are proving themselves able to co-exist alongside the traffic phenomenon that is YouTube.

This trend carries over to the series of niche social networks that cater to every topic from the environment, to pets, to writing and everything in between, some more successfully than others, alongside the traffic giants of MySpace, Facebook and Bebo.

Let me be (ahem, among) the first to categorise this sector: social nicheworking. Let’s see how well that phrase catches on…

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Every wonder what the world of social networking looks like as a map? No? Me neither.

However, if ever you do, a comic book artist has drawn this map which reflects relative audience sizes. Unfortunately, you can’t quite make out the TechnoCloud pixel - the map equivalent of a desert island with single palm tree…

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MTV parent Viacom is allowing web users to embed videos from a number of MTV sites, including Pimp My Ride, into their web spaces. This comes at a time when Viacom requested the removal of 100k+ clips from YouTube.

While this move shows Viacom’s desire to control the source of their content on the web, they are prepared to let users consume it at least partly on their own terms, whether embedded on a blog or in their social networking space. With the content contained in their player, they can potentially place advertising around the player or within the content to monetise their content in this space.

Check out our example below to see it in action.

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Another day, another social network announces more mobile functionality. This time, US giant Facebook joins in the fun, even if many of the services were already available.

Joining in the push to get into the mobile space along with fellow heavyweights MySpace and Bebo, the enhanced Facebook service allows those with access and the required handset to surf their profile, upload photos and notes and send and receive Facebook texts. (Update: now Google’s orkut is getting in on the act).

The Facebook blog does make an interesting point about the connection between social networks and the mobile industry:

Facebook was invented to make sharing information with your friends easier and better. Mobile phones were invented for pretty much the same reason. People needed an easier and better way to get in touch with each other, and mobile phones made it happen.

So, a natural partnership it seems? Certainly the me-too race is on to ensure that no large social network is left behind when it comes to mobile, even if the strength of the revenue streams are as yet uncertain.

2007 is already proving a big year for mobile with Apple’s (or is it Cisco’s ;)) iPhone and the likes of Google, Yahoo and YouTube all getting in on the act with a series of services and partnerships. 2007 may well be the year when we find which services stick, before 2008 is the year when they start to pay.

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In the reveal-all world of social networking, it’s no surprise to find a widget that allows you to share your TV viewing preferences on the web. The MeeVee listings service has developed a neat little Flash widget built on its listings and recommendations service. It works as a loyalty tool as well as a marketing tool for those with the debatable pleasure of discovering more about your viewing habits.

Unfortunately, it’s US only, so I can’t share the delights of my TV dinners here in London, so readers will have to make do with what I might be watching if I lived in New York. Fascinating, I think you’ll agree…

Geographical grumbles aside, it’s interesting to see that the service completes the circle by linking you through to a page to download the episode via iTunes or alternatives. It would be even more interesting to see this technology come to mobile to enable customised recommendations and downloads on the move. Now that would be something worth sharing with the world.

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A recent Nielsen Useit column seems to confirm that the ‘1% rule’ is alive and well. He states that:

In most online communities, 90% of users are lurkers who never contribute, 9% of users contribute a little, and 1% of users account for almost all the action.

Although the percentages differ the numbers are echoed in a previous Guardian article that states the 1% rule arguing that:

It’s an emerging rule of thumb that suggests that if you get a group of 100 people online then one will create content, 10 will “interact” with it (commenting or offering improvements) and the other 89 will just view it.

The stats do of course vary depending on the nature of the community. Given the debatable copyright status of a large proportion of YouTube’s content, the numbers are more firmly skewed to those viewing rather than interacting and creating content. Whereas the video editing environment at the likes of Jumpcut and Motionbox has a higher percentage of users interacting and creating.

However, I predict that the 1% rule and its respective percentages will have to evolve as the nature of people’s level of interaction with online media evolves. With the increasing growth of multi-media personal publishing and interaction tools available the barriers to entry are rapidly reducing to creation and certainly interaction.

Challenges to the 1% rule

Take video editing community Jumpcut’s acquisition by Yahoo. As Yahoo begins to integrate Jumpcut’s software into their wider offering the prompts to remix and engage with media will increase in visibility and usage.

Likewise, Google announced in its deal with Warner Music Group that it was looking to facilitate user-generated content by allowing users access to Warner content ”for use in their creative user-generated productions”. That deal will be one of many.

As the social networking generation (which grows ever wider) continues to evolve, there is a whole body of users familiar with embedding and interacting with content and a growing body of tools for them to enable them to do so.

For businesses that monetise traffic, increased interaction with content equals increased traffic and increased new content which leads to more traffic - certainly firm commercial reasons to continue the trend.

Principles remain

Certain basic principles of the 1% rule will remain. There will remain a hard core of users that drive a community by investing considerable amounts of time in it. Equally there will remain a majority of lurkers surfing the community - time pressures, competing interests and familiarity with technology dictate that.

However, both the increasing ease of creating content and ease of interacting with it, mean that the 1% of creators and the 9-10% of interactors will grow putting the neat 1% rule in doubt.

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Stats from comScore Media Metrix claim that in the US at least, MySpace has a much broader demographic than the teen segment it is commonly associated with. In fact only 30% are under 25, with just over half over 35.

They estimate that MySpace has 56m users in the US, against Facebook’s 15m, Xanga’s 8m and Friendster’s 1m, but surprisingly they omit Bebo from their stats.

Whether the early adopting teens will approve of Mom and Dad playing in their space is another matter, but social networking sites are broad enough for multiple niches to interact independently of each other. Certainly the stats indicate how social networking has infiltrated the mass market as it moves along the technology adoption curve at rapid speed.

The stats have raised eyebrows in the blogosphere as well as in a straw poll in the office, although Giga Om writes that it has had the figures confirmed by Fox Interactive.

From a UK perspective, it is not a huge leap of faith to believe that those ‘oldies’ among the 14m that got to grips with this space through Friends Reunited are now finding their way onto the next generation of social networking sites.

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